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Labour can win in Stoke-on-Trent

Full Report: How Labour can win in Stoke-on-Trent by-election, so long as they select a ‘staunch’ Brexit candidate

The Labour party must pick a staunch Brexiteer for their candidate selection in Stoke-on-Trent or risk the humiliation of losing the by-election to the resurgence of Nuttall’s UKIP. If Labour pick a pro-Remain candidate our polling suggests they will lose the election. Equally, if they pick a Brexit-apathetic candidate, then the opportunity to secure the largest vote share available will be lost, along with potentially the seat.

If the Labour party can secure a candidate that has a proven track record of supporting Brexit and can demonstrate a keen understanding of the issues surrounding the NHS, the Labour party is more likely to secure victory.

  • In the upcoming by-election our poll indicates that Labour will receive 25% (-14), Conservatives 10% (-12) and UKIP 35% (+13) of the vote share with 24% still undecided. This is without a Labour candidate selected.

  • 30% of voters who indicated ‘Don’t Know’ for the upcoming by-election previously (GE 2015) voted Labour, 10% voted UKIP and 46% for the Lib Dems.

  • The Labour party risks potentially losing more votes to UKIP than they possibly could gain from the Conservatives and Lib Dems put together, therefore must pick a Brexiteer candidate to nullify this threat.

  • 81% of voters who indicated they are going to vote for UKIP in the upcoming by-election have previously voted for Labour.

  • 59% of voters who identified as voting UKIP and 51% of those who are undecided, would likely vote for Labour ‘if the candidate was a staunch Brexiteer’.

  • The Labour party should fight the by-election on two central issues, the NHS (27%) and pro-Brexit (24%).

  • 98% of voters who have voted for the Labour party at some point feel the most important issue to them in the upcoming election is the NHS.

  • Interestingly, Leave voters’ most important issue is a pro-Brexit candidate (34%) and the NHS is only 17%, however, in contrast the Remainers’ key issue is the NHS (51%) and anti-Brexit sentiment second, with 15% identifying it as their key voting motivator.

Click here to download the full report in PDF Format. 


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